With Crime Prevention Month coming to a close, we take the opportunity to highlight another method of preventing crime: predictive policing. This is a fairly new method of crime prevention that has been picking up steam the past few years. The basic concept of predictive policing is built on statistics and crime data. When this data is combined with statistical analysis tools, agencies can better pinpoint hot spots for crime. The statistical analysis software provides insight into the different dynamics of crime within a specific location. When used effectively, this tool can allow an agency to better manage its personnel, time, and resources. Not only does it improve efficiencies within the agency, it also acts as a force multiplier for cash-strapped agencies.

So, who is using this technology? Several agencies in cities across the country are using different forms of predictive policing. For example, New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Baltimore have all implemented comparative statistics (COMSTAT) into their work processes. This form of predicative policing involves the comparing of events, crimes, and locations to get a better understanding of how and why crime happens. It also focuses on identifying the drivers behind crime. Based on these analytics, the agency can deploy officers to areas that are prone to crime.

Crime Prevention 2012 Report: Jeff Webster, Deltek Senior Research Analyst Justice/Public Safety, on Predictive Policing from GovWin, a Deltek Network on Vimeo.

In a recent study on the effectiveness of predictive policing, the Santa Cruz Police stated that it has 30 percent more calls for service, but 20 percent less staff. This demand has forced Santa Cruz and other police departments to think proactively about policing. A lack of funds and a reduced police force are continuing to drive the market for predictive analytics. States and localities aren’t expected to see a turnaround in their budgets within the next few years, so these tools will continue to see increased demand.

Analyst Take:

With this continued need, vendors will need to begin thinking proactively about who to target for new business. The obvious would be to target agencies experiencing layoffs and reduced resources. However, vendors should not forget about agencies that have a full staff and money to spend. It actually might be harder for a vendor to sell to an agency that is strapped for cash than it is to sell to an agency that has funds. This might sound obvious, but a lot of vendors shy away from low-hanging fruit due to increased competition.

For more a more in-depth look at predictive policing, see Deltek’s recently published Analyst Perspective.

The state of Nebraska Department of Motor Vehicles (NDMV) is looking to establish a REAL ID security plan in compliance with the REAL ID Security Act. The state released a formal solicitation on October 13 for a Comprehensive Driver’s License and Identification Card Issuance Security Plan.

REAL ID is a nationwide effort to improve the integrity and security of state-issued drivers’ licenses and identification cards to assist in the fight against terrorism and reduce fraud. In January 2008, in response to the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, Global War on Terror, and the 2005 Tsunami Relief, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a REAL ID final rule to establish “minimum standards for driver’s licenses and identification cards acceptable by federal agencies for official purposes.” The rule contains a set of regulations for states to meet requirements of the REAL ID Act, including a security plan as part of its REAL ID certification program. States were expected to be in full compliance with the REAL ID Act by May 11, 2011, but many states had trouble meeting the requirements due to budgetary issues. A final rule was issued on March 7, 2011, changing the date to January 15, 2013.

The DHS has been working with states to implement the requirements of the act and has awarded grand funds to help meet those requirements. Since 2008, DHS has awarded states 150 separate grants that collectively total approximately $175 million. Nebraska’s REAL ID security plan project is being federally funded through a Homeland Defense grant expiring in May 2012. The state received a small portion of the overall Driver’s License Security Grant Program (DLSGP) administered by FEMA.

Nebraska currently has a contract with L-1 Identity Solutions through 2016 for the production and issuance of drivers’ licenses and state identification cards. The NDMV needs a REAL ID security plan to comply with security requirements and ensure REAL ID compliance certification. The security plan will act as a check list for the review of enrollment, production and issuance processes for security recommendations found in the DHS REAL ID security plan handbook.

The solicitation is looking to establish a final report including plans for physical security such as facilities for driver’s license and ID production as well as a gap analysis tool that will organize security information necessary to assess compliance with the Nebraska REAL ID security plan. A fixed-price contract is expected to begin on December 9, 2011, and run for one year. Proposals are due November 10, 2011.

Analyst’s Take

Dwindling state budgets due to severe economic downtown have caused many states to not fully comply with the requirements of REAL ID. The implementation of REAL ID is a costly investment, and many states are not able to conjure up the resources. It is important for vendors to help states find and apply for federally-funded grant programs to assist in meeting the requirements. Vendors should research which states have been applying for grants and which grant programs have proven successful. It is important when looking for grants to analyze their components in order to figure out what the grant specifically outlines because it may only fund certain aspects of the project. In addition, vendors should be aware of when a state’s contract is due to expire in order to begin planning their proposals.

Over the last few years, social networking – particularly Facebook – has shifted from a forum for college students to keep in touch, to a worldwide community with participants of all ages. The capabilities of social media tools are seemingly endless as users are no longer limited to simply messaging each other. Many businesses and nonprofits now use these pages to let “friends” know about sales and to drum up business support. Numerous government entities use Facebook to promote events taking place around town. This often includes more than just updates on local concerts and festivals; information is also posted to help keep citizens safe. 

One of the more recent Facebook trends is creating groups advertising sex offender registries. Interested parties can “like” the group to view the registry, or in cases like the Jackson County, Ala. Sheriff’s Office’s page, the list is openly available to all. The number of people concerned enough about sex offenders to actually find the registry through the use of a search engine or through scanning state websites is limited, and public safety departments fear this could leave many people unaware of sex offenders in their area. By putting the list on Facebook, sheriff offices and other public safety departments are hoping to leverage citizens’ need for quick results and community awareness while increasing registry viewership. 

Many of these pages include pictures of the offenders,  brief descriptions of their crime, their location (regardless of whether it took place in that jurisdiction), and the offender’s address. Some locations are even creating an app for their registries to download to mobile devices. Through these efforts, public safety officials are able to reach a wider audience and capitalize on the more than 800 million active Facebook users, 50 percent of whom log on daily. Not only does this make the registry lists more widely accessible, it also helps promote the spread of information; when someone “likes” the page, that information will spread to their friends’ pages.  

Sex offender registries are not the only items public safety departments have begun posting on Facebook. Some departments regularly post crime updates and even surveillance photos/videos of suspects in an effort to increase public safety and catch criminals. The Westbrook, Maine Police Department’s Facebook page provides weekly statistics on the number of service calls made, vehicle accidents, theft and other complaints. The department also posts a regular “Weekend Update” that provides pictures of arrested individuals and information on their charges.

Analyst’s Take:

The advances in social media and the increasing trend of individuals “going mobile” could provide significant opportunities for vendors. More than 350 million Facebook users access the site on their mobile devices, and more than 475 mobile operators deploy Facebook on mobile products. While posting sex offender registries and other arrest information on social networking sites is still a relatively new trend, it is expected to grow in popularity. Though these sites are specifically designed to be extremely user-friendly and are usually updated in-house, vendors should take into account the implication of this increasing market and consider developing products to work with free Facebook pages. It is likely that mobile applications will continue to grow in popularity, and vendors should focus on apps that provide a list of the offenders (much like the Facebook page) or even mapping applications that pull information from the online registries and pinpoint the location of sex offenders’ homes within a certain radius. This would allow concerned citizens to open the app anywhere and find out whether any previously convicted offenders are living nearby.

While Facebook is currently a cheap alternative to more sophisticated products on the market, it does have its limitations and, in many cases, may be used in conjunction with a product provided by a vendor who can be linked to the Facebook page. Vendors should consider speaking with statewide agencies and larger localities about their products, and work to market them as a serious competitor. They should make sure to highlight their product’s successes and advanced features as well as how it can be connected to social networking sites.

Good News Series: Homeland Security State Budget Projections and Business Opportunities

By Chris Cotner, Jeff Webster, Evan Halperin, Kristin Howe, Joanna Salini, and Luke Harris.

With all of the challenges faced by businesses and government this past year, the state and local contracting community has certainly been in need of some good news. At GovWin, we strive to bring the GovCon community actionable, good news that is based upon solid data and analysis. As illustrated in a previous article, here, GovWin developed a set of statistical projection models to examine future state budget trends in the homeland security (HS) vertical. In brief, state HS budgets are projected to increase looking forward (see figure 1). The following analysis explains both the methodology and projections in some detail.

Figure 1: Homeland Security Total State Spending (Actual and Projected)

Click on image, above for full-sized version.

The Methodology

Subscribers have access to information on the projection methodology, here.

The Projections

Taking a look at figure 1, above, the projection looks even better than the previous overall state budget projection data (here).There is a downtick in FY 2011, followed by a 0.86 percent increase in FY 2012. Considering that most verticals are experiencing budgetary drops in FY 2012, this is great news! For more projection data, subscribers can see the full article, here.

As mentioned earlier, doing state-specific projections becomes more difficult with a universal model. Simply, there are too many possible associated variables to accurately predict for each state. However, with our modeling, GovWin was able to provide a picture of projected budgets for some states. Before delving into that data, here are the actual HS budgets for states in FY 2010 – 2013 (table 1, below – subscribers have access to data on all states, here).

Table 1: State Homeland Security Budgets FY 2010-2013

Note: Subscribers have access to data on all states, here.

State HS budget projections beyond FY 2013 were limited based upon state data variability. However, the data bore fruitful results for California, New York, Connecticut, Utah, and South Dakota. Below, figure 2 illustrates the projection data- subscribers have access to expanded data for these states, here).

Figure 2: Homeland Security State Spending (Actual and Projected)

Click on image above for full-sized version.

The data above gives some representation and basis of comparison for future state HS budgets. More specifically, states have in-process or anticipated HS IT initiatives. As part of the overall picture of state HS budgets and projections, table 3 shows HS IT budgets for the states (again, subscribers have access to data for all states, here). Again, this represents just the HS-related IT items identifiable from each state’s published budget. Below that, GovWin’s State and Local Justice and Public Safety/Homeland Security Team members offer an analysis of upcoming HS IT initiatives and projects in each of the states identified in figure 2, above.

Table 3: State Homeland Security IT Budgets FY 2010-2013

Note: Subscribers have access to an expanded table with data for all states, here.

GovWin tracked homeland security major IT initiatives for selected states:
Note: Subscribers have access to expanded coverage for HS opportunities for these (here) and all other states, including documentation, requirements, contacts, anticipated awards, and other data.
 
California:
The California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) is embarking on an effort to replace their existing Response Information Management System (RIMS) to increase functionality and comply with new federal disaster guidelines. On top of this, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire) is working to replace and upgrade their All Incident Reporting System (CAIRS), which is used to collect, compile, analyze, and distribute statistical information on forest fires. California was allocated nearly $73 million for the FY 2011 Homeland Security Grant Program which is expected to be distributed across the state for response and recovery efforts. It is expected that the state will continue its’ efforts to curb human trafficking and enforce/secure the nation’s border.

Major upcoming opportunities tracked by GovWin:
GovWin Tracked California Opportunity A: The state is planning the replacement of its Statewide Automated Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS).
GovWin Tracked California Opportunity B: The state is seeking proposals for the California All Incident Reporting System (CAIRS).
GovWin Tracked California Opportunity C: The state is evaluating proposals for the Response Information Management System (RIMS).

New York:
Many of the large government expenditures in the state of New York are focused on New York City and its five boroughs. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) accounts for nearly $14 billion over the next three years and while much of their spending is on operations, last year the MTA began a radio system upgrade at just over $115 million. The state engaged in an attempt to build a statewide system, however, the endeavor proved too costly and riddled with issues. New York was allocated nearly $91 million for the FY 2011 Homeland Security Grant Program, which is likely to be used both in the New York City area for security efforts and upstate New York for recent hurricane and flooding disaster cleanup efforts.

Major upcoming opportunities tracked by GovWin:
GovWin Tracked New York Opportunity A: The state is expecting to pursue bids for a DL/ID Imaging and Document Production.
GovWin Tracked New York Opportunity B: The state is expecting to pursue bids for a Law Practice Management Software.
GovWin New York Opportunity C: The state is seeking bids for a Cyber Security Managed Security Services Product.

Connecticut:
The State of Connecticut recently completed a reorganization of its Information Technology offices, changing the Department of Information Technology to the Bureau of Enterprise Systems and Technology (BEST) under the Department of Administrative Services. Connecticut Gov. Malloy recently announced an initiative to provide technology upgrades to the Department of Motor Vehicles services. The Department of Transportation (DOT) and Connecticut Transit are working on various upgrades to its software and hardware systems. Connecticut was allocated nearly $5.1 million for the FY 2011 Homeland Security Grant Program, which is likely to be used for disaster recovery efforts following the declaration of a state of emergency following Hurricane Irene.

Major upcoming opportunities tracked by GovWin:
GovWin Tracked Connecticut Opportunity A: The state is expecting to pursue bids for an Electronic Monitoring Program for Alcohol Consumption.
GovWin Tracked Connecticut Opportunity B: The state is expecting to pursue bids for a Statewide Interoperable Radio Communications System.
GovWin Tracked Connecticut Opportunity C: The state is expecting to pursue bids for a Next Generation 911 System.
GovWin Tracked Connecticut Opportunity D: The state is expecting to pursue bids for a Computer Aided Dispatch System.


Utah:
The Utah Department of Public Safety recently reduced completion time of Utah Criminal Justice Information System FBI audits by creating a new online process and added fiber analysis to the trace evidence disciplines at the State Crime Lab. Utah was allocated $5.1 million for the FY 2011 Homeland Security Grant Program which is expected to be distributed across the state for response and recovery efforts. The state is expected to continue its efforts to improve emergency communications and equipment.

Major upcoming opportunities tracked by GovWin:
GovWin Tracked Utah Opportunity A: The state is expected to obtain equipment and upgrades for the Salt Lake Valley Emergency Communications Center.
GovWin Tracked Utah Opportunity B: The state may rebid on contracts for video detection system and components upon expiration of current contracts.
GovWin Tracked Utah Opportunity C: The state may rebid on contracts for mobile communication components upon expiration of current contracts.


South Dakota:

The state of South Dakota is pursuing homeland security initiatives through their State Emergency Operations Plan. The state currently has a Public Assistance program in place, which receives grant money from FEMA. In addition, the state uses on-line fire reporting to provide information on fire trends that are useful in identifying and preventing fires across the state. The Department of Public Safety has obtained grants through the Drivers License Security Grand Program. In FY 2010, Target Funding Allocations were $600,000. The state currently holds a 5-year $6,682,500 contract with L-1 Identity Solutions for its Driver License Identification Card program that is in effect until 2013.

GovWin South Dakota Opportunity A: The state is evaluating proposals for WSCA Police Radar, LiDAR parts and accessories.

Analyst’s Take – Jeff Webster

In its truest sense, homeland security is charged with protecting the “homeland.” As many vendors in this market know, homeland security falls under the jurisdiction of police and emergency management agencies across the country. However, at the local level, there are very few agencies charged specifically with homeland security. Thus, vendors selling into this market will need to target their efforts at state-level police, sheriff, emergency management, and if applicable homeland security departments. Some areas of focus for homeland security agencies continue to be border security, surveillance, credentialing, and port security. Products and services that improve the validating of information and identity, capturing and storing sensitive data, and improving infrastructure protection will see the greatest amount of business. Based on the FY 2011 Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) State Homeland Security Grant (SHSP) program, a total of $526.8 million will be allocated to state governments’ homeland security efforts. Vendors should also expect this market to continue with funding through the current presidential term.

Analyst’s Take – Chris Cotner

With so many states budgets and specific verticals experiencing historic declines in 2012, the projected HS gains, at 0.86 percent show some unexpected good news. In this economy, slow or flat growth beats a loss on any day. Looking forward, slow, yet steady state budgetary gains are projected in the vertical. While largely subsidized by the feds, this slow growth and continued funding provides some stability for vendors in an otherwise turbulent GovCon market. In planning future business prospects, vendors should look not only toward state budgets, but toward the continued funding stream from Washington for cues.

While there are definite new projected business and IT opportunities in the vertical, this is a cautionary tale. First, while the overall HS budgets are improving, an individual state budget can experience sharp fluctuations from year-to-year with changing political priorities and projects. Second, FY 2012 is still a net budget loss for HS in many states, and overall for HS IT in all states. Finally, while growth is projected, with annual overall annual growth rates at just under one percent, this market cannot exactly be considered booming. Despite the advisory, and as demonstrated above, there are projected and improving state business opportunities in the homeland security market; interested vendors would do well to stay positioned in the market.

Follow all of the GovWin State and Local Top Opportunities, Reports, and Podcasts, here.

Follow the GovWin Justice and Public Safety Team on Twitter, here. 

Follow Chris on Twitter, here.

Follow Jeff on Twitter, here.

Visit the Homeland Security vertical profile, here. 

In May 2011, the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics awarded nearly half a billion dollars to state and local governments as part of the Byrne Memorial Grant program and the Justice Assistance Grant (Byrne/JAG) program. These grants are awarded for projects that relate to law enforcement, courts, corrections, corrections development, witness programs, and crime prevention, to name a few.

In a recently released analysis of grant allocations from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, allocations were as follows for fiscal year 2010 (FY 10):

• The total 2010 allocation for JAG funding was approximately $457 million, of which $445.9 million went to states, and $11.1 million to territories and the District of Columbia.
• The five states eligible to receive the largest total state allocation were California ($51.1 million), Texas ($34 million), Florida ($30.9 million), New York ($24.8 million), and Illinois ($18.9 million).
• 2,214 local governments were eligible for awards directly or through a joint allocation with other governments within their county. The five local governments eligible to receive the largest awards were New York City ($6.4 million), Chicago ($4.9 million), Los Angeles ($3.1 million), Philadelphia ($3 million), and Houston ($2.7 million).
• Three states had more than 100 local governments eligible to receive awards directly or through a joint allocation: California (272), Florida (152), and Texas (145).

The above statistics may be for FY 10, but the funding was only awarded to agencies around May 2011. Typically, a grant is awarded during the year following the grant process. For many grants, the application deadline is in July, and awards occur in February. The Byrne/JAG funding for FY 10 will assist many agencies during FY 11.

Throughout October, GovWin’s justice/public safety and homeland security team has been honoring Crime Prevention Month through blogging, including a recent post on red-light cameras. Many of the programs that received funding under the Byrne/JAG program fall into categories that directly relate to crime prevention. As part of the crime prevention blog series, I mentioned that judicial/court projects will see the most growth, while corrections projects will receive the most funding. With the addition of millions of dollars in grant funding, vendors should consider state and local law enforcement and policing projects a top priority.

While vendors are aware of the fiscal impact the recession has had on their companies, state and local agencies have also been forced to make drastic changes. Many correctional facilities and law enforcement agencies have been put in the position of laying off several workers as well as putting many IT projects deemed unnecessary or too costly on hold. With the receipt of the Byrne/JAG funds, some of these agencies will look to revise and restart these projects. Many agencies are looking to rehire officers, while at the same time figuring out ways to use technology to better utilize existing resources. Examples of doing more with less include the use of red-light cameras, speed enforcement cameras and additional surveillance systems and correctional security systems. These types of systems aid in public safety initiatives with fewer officers on the street.

Grant funding has been available in the Byrne/JAG program since 2005, and these funds are essential to state and local agencies and the vendors who support them with IT infrastructure. Vendors must continue to follow various grant programs after funds are awarded, seek out future grant programs, and provide recommendations or assistance to agencies in their quest for obtaining those funds. State and local agencies typically have projects in mind when they request funds, so vendors who can assist in the early stages will have a leg up when those projects come to fruition.
 

Hopefully readers of Deltek’s blog have seen our continual postings related to state and local budgets. In the health care and social services market, Deltek Senior Analyst Chris Cotner has provided a series of “good news” graphs that forecast an upward trend of budgets in FY 2013 and onward. Inspired by Cotner’s work, I decided to take a stab at researching Level 1 Establishment Grant application funding in support of state health insurance exchanges (HIXs). For those new to the subject, these mandated exchanges are no simple task. States need to consider not only the IT and business process behind such an undertaking, but also the individual components that branch off of the larger concept, including consumer outreach; assistance; call/help desks; enrollment; eligibility determination; insurance program qualifications; appeals management; and premium and tax credit processing, just to name a few. Never mind the need for integration between Medicaid management information systems (MMISs) and existing eligibility system(s). One can correctly assume the cost to the state would be substantial, which is not-so-great news for states scrambling to make the 2014 deadline.

The state of Illinois estimates needing $92.3 million for the implementation costs of its HIX, which consists of two primary elements: systems development/support and program operations. Systems development/support is expected to take $75M, including $45M for eligibility determination and enrollment, $15.8M for website development, $9.6M for a customer service call center, and $4.1M for a premium billing system. Program operations are estimated to cost $19M. Ohio contracted with KPMG to run numbers and found implementation costs for a compliant HIX to be $63.4M. This is the top-dollar extreme utilizing KPMG’s highest-cost assumptions. If Ohio decided not to implement a state-run exchange, the cost of interfacing with a federal exchange is estimated at $20M. Below is a breakdown of Ohio’s expenses for a state-run HIX:

Click on image above for full-sized version

External resource costs are estimated at $44M, other costs at $5.4M, software at $5M, hardware at $1.4M, and internal resource costs are estimated to be $7.1M. The next chart breaks down costs associated with a federally-run exchange:

Click on image above for full-sized version

Federal figures estimate $15.4M for external resource costs; software at $1.8M; hardware at $606,000; and internal resource costs at $2.6M.

New Mexico requested $34.3M for this round of funding after spending an estimated $75M on its integrated system delivery replacement project, ISD2R. West Virginia requested and received $9.7M, with an estimated $7.5M in contractual costs. The state plans on applying for more funding during the Level 2 grant cycle. Mississippi estimates contractual costs at $20M, including $12M for a Web portal, $3.3M for systems and data security, and $4M for customer support/small businesses, including help-line functionality. California’s numbers show total direct costs at $40M, including $27.8M for HIX IT, compared to Missouri’s $17.9M in HIX IT costs.

After looking at only seven state applications, I think it’s pretty obvious that money will be flowing in the health insurance exchange world to IT vendors. Most states are near the end of planning studies, so vendors should already have integratable solutions ready to demonstrate. States ideally need systems up and running by 2013 in order to comply with the 2014 deadline. As this is new territory for states, vendors with innovative solutions are in high demand.

Make sure to follow GovWin's Health Care and Social Services Team on Twitter @GovWin_HHS, or connect with us through LinkedIn.