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State & Local Fiscal Update (October 2010)

GovWin's Take: Key state and local government consumption categories from which IT consumption and investment are derived have shown resilience over the last two years. Annualized state and local revenue collections are only $50 billion off the last peak and revenue stability has improved significantly in recent quarters. However, weak year-over-year employment recovery and continued declines in monthly economic activity dictate guarded optimism for incremental state and local revenue growth beginning in 2011. The tapering of federal stimulus funds will result in more budget cuts, but state and local budgets should be "right-sized" and poised for net gains by 2012. These findings are in line with the assumptions that framed GovWin's most recent state and local IT market forecast report.

From the news:

  • Bloomberg: U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms
  • Wall Street Journal: States See Pickup in Tax Revenue
  • Bloomberg: Soaring Federal Aid Bails Out U.S. States, Cities: Chart of the Day
  • Rockefeller Institute: State and Local Government Employment are Down Since the Start of the Recession

The full update includes charts and commentary detailing the key drivers behind state and local IT spending: 1) quarterly state and local government consumption of services, structures, software and equipment, 2) quarterly state and local revenue trends, 3) monthly unemployment statistics, and 4) monthly national economic activity indicators.

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