The overall forecast annual growth rate of 2.8% during the 2023-28 period profiled in this report is lower than the historical rate of 4.3%. However, the market had just hit an unusual ramp-up in spending of nearly 14% from 2022-23 as pent-up demand after the pandemic delays and fully available “peak stimulus” boosted budgets lifted the market. Following a generally flat stretch from 2023-25 with a modest 1.9% increase for 2025, growth is expected to revert to more typical long-term patterns of over 4% a year through 2028. This outlook doesn’t factor in a recession.

This edition will consider some of the forces at work shaping government purchasing that affect the purchasing mood, investment plans, priorities and available budgets. This includes newer federal funding and policy shifts and related uncertainty, adjusting to no longer having the cushion of ARPA stimulus to fall back on and the newer political/voter climate including some larger and relevant mega themes coming out of the 2025 governor’s “state of the state” speeches that we analyzed, as well as specific areas of emphasis in policies.  

This Deltek forecast details SLED Professional Services spending across four major industry segments, including 1) Financial Investment Activities, 2) Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, & Payroll Services, 3) Management Consulting, and 4) Business Support Services. The methodology also includes breakouts of eight major buyer segments of level of government, including 1) cities 2) counties, 3) special purpose districts, 4) independent school districts, 5) higher education, 6) state government, 7) tribal government, and 8) other types of organizations that are still government-funded and issue RFPs in compliance with state government purchasing rules. For the current year profile, we also estimate demand across GovWin’s 12 major government verticals and show breakouts by state for the four major types of spending.