SLED IT Market, FY 2020-2023

Published: June 01, 2020

FeaturedSLED Market AnalysisCoronavirus (COVID-19) PandemicForecasts and Spending

State, local, and education (SLED) demand for vendor-furnished IT systems and services will decline from $135.1 billion in FY 2020 to $131.8 billion in FY 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.8%.

See also: SLED IT Market, FY 2020-2023 (data set)*

Due to the unique circumstances presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, this year’s forecast report will be a presented with a shorter forecasted window (FYs 2021 and 2022) and with a rolling format as follows:

  • June 1: Top-level forecast with breakdown by product and service offerings
  • July 31: Forecast with breakdown by state, levels of government, and product and service offerings
  • October 31 [regular schedule]: Forecast with breakdown by verticals

The change will also allow the SLED forecasts initial year (FY 2020) to align with the federal forecast's initial year to prevent confusion regarding the dating of the federal and SLED reports.

The rolling format is intended to incorporate the latest policy information from upcoming SLED market events:

  • State legislatures and local councils meeting in emergency sessions to allocate federal funds and raise additional own-source revenues to address to pandemic-response costs and economic impacts of stay-at-home orders
  • The rate of revenue recovery as states reopen their economies and consumers demonstrate their degree of willingness to shop or recreate in public
  • New federal stimulus measures
  • Indicators of a COVID-19 resurgence during winter months
  • Changes of state, local, and federal administrations as a result of delayed primaries and the November general elections
  • Expectations for double-digit unemployment into 2021

Major SLED Market Transitions That Will Occur During the Forecast Period:

  1. Increased Telework will Generate Significant Operational Savings
  2. Mass Transit will Have to be Reinvented
  3. The Virtual Campus will Be a Permanent Part of Higher Education
  4. The Enterprise CIO Will Become a Service Broker
  5. Pandemic Response will Become a Federalized Concern
  6. Preventing Abuse and Riot Control Will Dominate Law Enforcement Efforts

This report will help SLED IT contractors…

  • Assess the SLED information technology (IT) market size, forecasts, and segmentation for purposes of business development (BD) strategic planning.
  • Assess the proportion of IT spending by state, level of government, vertical, and function of government.
  • Assess the proportion of IT spending among the major market segments (i.e., Communications & Network Services, IT Hardware & Equipment, IT Services, and Software Products).

This forecast report includes the following:

  • 2020-2023 forecast for four major IT segments and 20 sub-segments
  • 2018 forecast reconciliation versus complete actual data
  • 2019 forecast reconciliation versus partial actual data

NOTE: This report is presented as a chart book of data providing the highest-level overview of the SLED market.

Methodology

Adapting data produced by U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), Deltek's forecast model generates over 2.7 million data points and is the most comprehensive and sophisticated model available for the SLED market.

Introduction (slides 6-14)

*Rolling Release of the FY 2020 – FY 2023 Report
*SLED Market Forecast Policy Landscape
*Reconciliation of Previous Years’ Forecast Figures
*Purpose of This Report
*What is the State, Local, and Education (SLED) market?
*Scope and Methodology
*A Note on Data Sources
*Scope: Segment Definitions
*A Note on the Use of Fiscal Years

Market Forecasts (slides 16-40)

*Economic Outlook
*Market Volatility
*Forecast Reconciliation
*Historical Growth
*SLED Contractor-Addressable IT Market, FY 1997-2018
*SLED Contractor-Addressable IT Market by Segment, FY 1997-2018
*Contractor-Addressable IT Market, FY 2018-2023
*Major Federal Stimulus Options
*Observations from the 2008-09 Great Recession
*Major SLED Market Transitions
*Analyst's Takes
Market Forecasts by Segments and Sub-Segments

*SLED IT Market by Segment, FY 2018-2023
*SLED Communications & Network Services Market, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Communications, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Computers & Peripherals, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Other, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Services Market, FY 2018-2023
*SLED IT Services Market - Outsourcing, FY 2018-2023
*SLED Software Products Market, FY 2018-2023

Terms & Definitions (slides 43-47)
*Terms and Definitions – Sub-Segments