SLED Architecture Engineering and Construction Market, FY 2021-2023

Published: September 14, 2020

SLED Market AnalysisArchitecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC)Forecasts and Spending

State, local, and education (SLED) demand for professional business and financial services will decline from $325.0 billion in FY 2020 to $269.7 billion in FY 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.3%.

Due to the unique circumstances presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, this year?s forecast report will be a presented with a shorter forecasted window (FYs 2021 to 2023).

This format is intended to incorporate the latest policy information from upcoming SLED market events:


Major SLED Market Transitions That Will Occur During the Forecast Period:


This report will help SLED contractors?

This forecast report includes 2021-2023 forecasts for the following:

Eleven major AEC industry verticals including:

    • State legislatures and local councils meeting in emergency sessions to allocate federal funds and raise additional own-source revenues to address to pandemic-response costs and economic impacts of stay-at-home orders
    • The rate of revenue recovery as states reopen their economies and consumers demonstrate their degree of willingness to shop or recreate in public
    • Prospects for infrastructure-related federal stimulus
    • Indicators of a COVID-19 resurgence during winter months
    • Changes of state, local, and federal administrations as a result of delayed primaries and the November general elections
    • Expectations for double-digit unemployment into 2021
    1. Mass Transit will Have to be Reinvented
    2. The Virtual Campus will Be a Permanent Part of Higher Education
    • Assess the SLED AEC market size, forecasts, and segmentation for purposes of business development (BD) strategic planning.
    • Assess the proportion of AEC spending among the 59 major market segments.
    • Community Development - Construction of housing, community services, and redevelopment projects that support low-to-moderate income (LMI) geographies as well as investments with community-wide benefits. Includes recreational, cultural, public broadcasting, library, and convention/exhibition activities and facilities.
    • Education (Higher) - Construction of degree-granting institutions operated by state or local governments to provide academic training beyond the high school level.
    • Education (Primary/Secondary) - Construction of public schools and facilities for kindergarten through high school, including vocational-technical education, whether operated by school districts or state, county, municipal, or township governments.
    • General Government Services - Construction of government-wide executive, legislative, administrative, and staff service agencies. Includes construction and operation of sanitation/sewerage/solid waste management infrastructure and services along with construction of public buildings not assigned to other verticals.
    • Health Care - Construction of hospitals and outpatient clinics administered by a government entity.
    • Justice & Public Safety - Construction of facilities that support correctional, emergency management, fire protection, judicial/legal, and police protection activities. Also includes federally directed 'homeland security' activities and facilities related to all-hazards threats with an emphasis on global terrorism.
    • Natural Resources/Environment - Conservation and development of natural resources along with the regulation of related industries. Includes irrigation, drainage/flood control, forestry and fire protection, soil reclamation, soil and water conservation, fish and game programs, and agricultural programs.
    • Public Finance - Construction of revenue-generating facilities owned and operated by a government (e.g., parking facilities, liquor stores, gaming facilities, etc.).
    • Public Utilities - Construction of government owned and operated water supply, electric light and power, gas supply, or mass transit, including bus (non-school), commuter rail, light rail, or subway systems and terminals.
    • Transportation - Construction of infrastructure and activities related to (toll and non-toll) highways, streets, tunnels, bridges sidewalks, parking facilities (non-revenue generating), and ferries. Includes airports and sea ports owned and operated by a government.

Introduction (slides 5-15)
*SLED Market Forecast Policy Landscape
*Purpose of This Report
*Scope & Methodology
*Vertical Definitions
*A Note on Data Sources
Market Forecast (slides 16-54)
*Short-Term Economic Indicators
*Market Volatility
*SLED Contractor-Addressable Market, FY 1997-2020
*SLED AEC CAGRs by Census Category (Vertical Shading), FY 1997-2020
*SLED AEC Market Share (Vertical Shading), FY 2020
*Infrastructure Stimulus – House Plan
*Infrastructure Stimulus – White House Plan
*Observations on the Prospects for Infrastructure Stimulus
*Major COVID Market Impacts
*Analyst's Takes
*SLED AEC Market, FY 2018-2023 [All 59 categories forecasts are detailed under eleven verticals.]
Appendixt (slides 55-64)
*Terms & Definitions