Potential Air Force Priorities in the Second Trump Administration

Modernizing the Department of Defense (DOD) is among the highest priorities of the new Trump Administration, and this includes the Air Force. While details continue to evolve, it may be helpful to consider some recommendations from those who served in the first Trump Administration for clues on areas and priorities to watch.

Chris Miller, the former acting Secretary of Defense at the conclusion of the first Trump Administration, authored the DOD chapter in Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise: Project 2025 Presidential Transition Project. Published by The Heritage Foundation in 2023 as a “180-day playbook” for the next Republican presidential administration, Project 2025 has drawn criticism from some who consider some of the policy positions it contains to be controversial. Nonetheless, the document also includes fundamental operational recommendations, such as improving efficiencies or reforming defense acquisitions, which are not particularly controversial in nature. 

In his Air Force section, Miller includes the following recommendations for efforts and investments at the service.

• Adopt a two-war force defense strategy which drives an Air Force force-sizing construct required to accomplish strategic objectives.
• Increase the Air Force budget by 5 percent annually (adjusting for inflation) to reverse readiness declines and to facilitate modernization.
• Eliminate pass-through funding in the Air Force budget to increase accuracy and reduce underfunding.
• Reduce near-term and mid-term risk by increasing investment in:
  • Aircraft – Increase F-35A procurement to 60–80 per year, build the B-21 production capacity rate of 15–18 aircraft per year, increase EC-37B electronic warfare aircraft from 10 to 20, and increase airlift and aerial refueling capacity to support agile combat operations from dispersed locations.
  • Weapons – Develop and procure larger quantities of advanced mid-range weapons to maximize targets per sortie for stealth aircraft. Accelerate the development and production of the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile to compensate for an aging Minuteman III force.
• Invest in future Air Force programs and efforts to develop new capabilities, which includes the AF advanced battle management system portions of the DOD Combined Joint All Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) system; next-generation air dominance system of systems; moving target engagement capabilities; resilient basing, sustainment, and communications; and an electromagnetic spectrum operations recovery plan.

Potential FY 2025 Air Force Appropriation Levels

The current full-year FY 2025 continuing resolution that passed the House this week and is up for a Senate vote today includes the following appropriation levels for the Air Force.

• Military Personnel (MILPERS): $37B for Force Military Personnel, $2.5B for Reserve Personnel, and $5.3B for Air National Guard Personnel
• Operation and Maintenance (O&M): $63.2B
• Aircraft Procurement: $19.9B
• Missile Procurement: $4.3B
• Ammunition Procurement: $551M
• Other Procurement: $31B
• Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E): $46.8B

If the measure fails to pass today, it is unclear what changes to these levels will occur, if any, and when. Whatever funding Congress approves, it will take time for strategy and investment details to emerge, as well as how much influence Miller’s recommendations have on the path forward for the Air Force.

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