Deltek SLED IT Market Forecast, 2023-26

Published: May 05, 2023

SLED Market AnalysisCommunity DevelopmentEconomic Development/RegulationEducation (Higher)Education (Primary/Secondary)Forecasts and SpendingGeneral Government ServicesHealth CareJustice/Public Safety & Homeland SecurityNatural Resources/EnvironmentPublic FinancePublic UtilitiesSocial ServicesTransportation

State, local, and education (SLED) demand for vendor-furnished IT systems and services will grow slightly in 2023 by 1.7% to $133.8 billion and will then see a return to more typical growth rates reaching $150.2 billion in 2026. This represents a 3.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the forecast period of 2021-26.

This year's forecast introduces an updated methodology that maintains the core segments of the legacy IT series but integrates actual contracting data from Deltek’s comprehensive database of contracting activity. This approach allows for additional micro analysis for clients within the traditional segments and the forecast report now features a breakout for the important area of cloud services.     

Key market trends that will affect SLED IT spending:

  • Potential for recession continues
  • SLED market is returning to normal in volumes of competitive opportunities
  • Stimulus programs of ARPA and IIJA provide funding stability and will help minimize any negative impacts on government budgets should a recession happen
  • IT-relevant components of ARPA and IIJA include broadband and cybersecurity
  • Governor’s agenda items from their annual addresses promise a number of IT investments

This report will help SLED IT contractors to:

  • Assess the SLED information technology (IT) market size, forecasts, and segmentation for purposes of business development (BD) strategic planning.
  • Assess the proportion of IT spending by state, level of government and vertical.
  • Assess the proportion of IT spending among the major market segments (i.e., Communications & Network Services, IT Hardware & Equipment, IT Services, and Software Products).

This forecast report includes the following:

  • Update of previous 2018-21 year estimates using the new methodology
  • Estimating 2022 year data using actual source data
  • Forecasting 2023-26 years
  • 2021-2026 forecast series for four major IT segments and 22 categories

NOTE: This report is presented as a chart book of data providing the highest-level overview of the SLED market.

Methodology

A discussion of the updated methodology is available in the report. The analysis and forecasting is based primarily on the following two primary sources:

  • Deltek’s GovWin IQ database of contracting data from 2018-22   
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ annual estimates of major categories of SLED procurement spend

Data Set

This report download also includes the companion data set in XLS format (download zipped file to unlock both files).

The data set includes estimated spending amounts (US$ millions) and a pivot table that allows the user to view estimates with one or more of the following classifications:

Years 2018 through 2026 (9)

  • All 50 states + DC (51)
  • Type of Government, using Deltek’s expanded list (8)
  • Deltek Verticals (12)
  • Deltek Major IT Segments (4)
  • BEA Commodity Categories of IT (22) and associated NAICS Codes (22)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction (slides 6-16)

  • Purpose of This Report
  • What is the State, Local, and Education (SLED) market?
  • IT Market Bid Volume Total, by Quarter, and by Type of Government
  • Scope and Methodology
  • A Note on Data Sources
  • Scope: Segment Definitions

Market Forecasts (slides 18-37)

  • Economic Outlook
  • Market Volatility
  • Forecast Methodology Comparison to Previous Deltek Legacy Series
  • Historical Growth
  • SLED Contractor-Addressable IT Market, 1997-2017-Legacy Series
  • SLED Contractor-Addressable IT Market, 2018-2022-Updated Series
  • Contractor-Addressable IT Market, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT CAGRs by Category

Market Forecasts by Segments and Sub-Segments

  • SLED IT Market by Segment, 2021-2026
  • SLED Communications & Network Services Market, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Communications, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Computers & Peripherals, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Hardware & Equipment Market – Other, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Services Market, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Services Market - Outsourcing, 2021-2026
  • SLED Software Products Market, 2021-2026
  • SLED IT Market by Deltek Vertical

Market Trends (slides 39-52)

  • Major Market-Wide Trends with Potential for Impact on SLED IT
  • IT Bids Forecast
  • Analysts Take: IT Priorities and Trends Observed
  • Governor’s IT Initiatives for 2023-24
  • IT-relevant components of ARPA and IIJA

Appendix A: State IT Spending Profiles (slides 54-155)

The following slides are included for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia:

  • State IT Spending Profile vs. U.S. Total, 2023
  • Contractor-Addressable IT Market, 2023 (by Market Verticals)
  • Contractor-Addressable IT Market, 2023 (by Market Segments)

Appendix B: Terms & Definitions (slides 157-161)

Terms and Definitions – Sub-Segments