Emerging Navy Priorities in the Second Trump Administration

Modernizing the Department of the Navy is emerging as one of the Trump Administration’s overall Department of Defense (DOD) priorities. While details are beginning to emerge, it may be useful to look at some recommendations from those who served in the first Trump Administration for potential clues to what areas we might want to watch.

Chris Miller, the former acting Secretary of Defense at the end of the first Trump Administration, authored the DOD chapter in Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise: Project 2025 Presidential Transition Project. Published by The Heritage Foundation in 2023 as a “180-day playbook” for the next Republican presidential administration, Project 2025 has drawn criticism from some who consider some of the policy positions it contains to be controversial. Nonetheless, the document also includes fundamental operational recommendations, such as improving efficiencies or reforming defense acquisitions, which are not particularly controversial in nature. 

In his DOD chapter, Miller includes the following recommendations for efforts and investments at the Navy.

• Invest in and expand force structure to build a fleet of more than 355 ships (emphasis added), develop and field unmanned systems to augment the manned forces, and to require that range and lethality be the key factors in all procurement and sustainment decisions for ships, aircraft, and munitions.
• Reestablish the General Board to focus on long-term planning of Navy fleet architecture and shipbuilding, empowered with final decision authority over all requirements documents concerning ships and the major defense systems fielded on ships.
• Accelerate the production and purchase of key munitions. To ensure the Navy is supplied with significant capacity of air-launched and sea-launched stealthy, precision, cruise missiles and high-performance surface-to-air missiles for air defenses, working with the Congress to enhance the munitions supply chains and workforce.
• Enhance warfighter development to ensure that Navy personnel obtain the experience and demonstrate core competence in warfighting qualifications necessary to advance in their careers and assume leadership positions. This includes using war games as experiential learning environments as a prerequisite for achieving major career advancement and leadership positions.
• Establish a Rapid Capabilities Office within the Navy to enable the transition technology into warfighting capability more rapidly, fostering a culture of innovation and willingness to tolerate risk so that “good enough” systems can be fielded rapidly. Smith suggests using the Space Development Agency as a model.

For purposes of scope, I will focus on two areas that may have the most technology and budget implications.

Navy Rapid Capabilities Evolution

Smith’s proposal for a Navy Rapid Capabilities Office is not without its forerunners. The U.S. Marine Corps currently has its own Rapid Capabilities Office, and the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) has their PEO Integrated Warfare Systems (PEO-IWS). Further, the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act authorized the creation of the Naval Air Warfare Rapid Capabilities Office in the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR). The Navy’s yearly Research Development Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) budget regularly has line items aimed at the development of emerging technologies and capabilities. What may be in view is a sense of Navy-wide coordination and strategic focus to accelerate the development and fielding of new and emerging capabilities.

Shipbuilding Challenge

Meeting shipbuilding goals may be among the Navy’s highest priorities and greatest challenges.

In January, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Navy would need to spend roughly $40B per year for the next 30 years for the Navy to fulfill its current battle force fleet expansion plans, growing from 295 today to 390 in 2054. Before increasing in size, however, the fleet is anticipated to drop in the near term to 283 ships in 2027 due to planned retirements.

In a February assessment, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) concluded that the Navy needs to take a strategic approach for its private sector industrial base investments. In part, GAO found that “the Navy's shipbuilding plans have consistently reflected a larger increase in the fleet than the industrial base has achieved. Yet, the Navy continues to base its goals on an assumption that the industrial base will perform better on cost and schedule than it has historically. The shipbuilders have infrastructure and workforce challenges that have made the Navy's goals difficult to accomplish.” Among its recommendations, GAO urged the Navy to develop a ship industrial base strategy that aligns with the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS).

Smith’s recommendation to pursue a 355-ship Navy is not outside the Navy’s conception, although it may be ambitious without significant investment and commitment. But all this may have informed the new Trump Administration’s Naval priorities.

In his March 4 address to a joint session of Congress, President Trump announced his intent to establish a new office of shipbuilding within the White House to reinvigorate the industry for both commercial and military shipbuilding. While the details of the office are forthcoming, Trump proposed offering “special tax incentives to bring this industry home to America,” in his remarks.

To accomplish this priority, he will need Congress to prioritize the funding and tax incentives necessary to move the needle on the pace of production and the infrastructure needed to accelerate it. Time will tell whether these elements will make it into an FY 2025 appropriations or if the White House will look to FY 2026 to get the ball rolling.

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