SLED AEC Market Forecast 2025-28
Published: October 31, 2025
Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC)Community DevelopmentEconomic Development/RegulationEducation (Higher)Education (Primary/Secondary)General Government ServicesHealth CareJustice/Public Safety & Homeland SecurityNatural Resources/EnvironmentPublic FinancePublic UtilitiesSocial ServicesTransportation
The robust growth in the AEC market seen in 2023-25 is projected to slow but not retreat into 2028, even with the winding down of IIJA stimulus. This will result in an overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% from 2023-28. The market will transition to a 1.9% annual rate from 2025-28.
Growth in this year’s report across the forecast period of 2023-28 is lower than the previous year’s very strong 6% overall rate for 2022-27 due to starting the series in 2023—a year that had just been lifted by 22% over 2022 based on the Infrastructure Act (IIJA) fully taking effect. The 3.5% current overall CAGR is somewhat below the longer-term historical rate of 4.5% since 1997 but still represents substantial additional spending and a healthy market.
Total spending will increase from $476.6 billion in 2025 to $504.6 billion in 2028. While the official stimulus allocations from IIJA will last through the end of 2026, funds will continue to flow to contractors—particularly as large multi-year projects are completed. There continues to be strong public support for infrastructure, with state and local funding available to help bridge any gaps from reduced federal support. Among the strongest Census categories from 2025-28 are power, water/sewage/waste, healthcare and transportation.
This report will help contractors understand market trends across 11 major Census categories, many sub-categories, 12 different Deltek market verticals, 8 different Deltek levels of government, all 50 states and DC, and four different types of projects (build, design/build, design-only and renovation). Census categories include amusement and recreation, commercial, educational, healthcare, highway and street, office, power, public safety, residential, transportation (air/sea/land) and water/sewage/waste disposal. In addition, we profile the non-Census category of “trail and path.”
Introduction (slides 5-13)
*Report Purpose
*Market Definition
*Scope and Methodology
*Data Sources
Market Forecast (slides 14-107)
*Economic Outlook
*Market Volatility
*Historical Growth
*Total Addressable Market
*Bid Forecasts
*ARPA, IIJA & Inflation Reduction Act
*Governors’ Agendas
*Broader SLED Trends
*Changes in federal government funding from “One Beautiful Bill” and notes on the government shutdown
*Forecasts and profiles of major Census categories, including breakouts by sub-category, vertical, level of government, location of project (state) and type of project (build, design/build, design-only and renovate)
Appendix (slides 117-119)
*Terms & Definitions
*Census Terms